Ecommerce Forecasting Tool

A 48-month ecommerce forecast built from monthly customer cohorts: orders from new and repeat customers, revenue, cost of sales, marketing spend, operating income and the traffic you would need.

Setup

First month of the forecast

Revenue per order

Average order value, new customer

Average order value, repeat customer

The workbook starts this at 80% of the new-customer value

Monthly change in order value

Monthly change in that rate

-5% means the rate of change falls by 5% of itself each month

Shipping revenue per order

Costs per order

Cost of sales, % of revenue

Additional cost of sales, % of revenue

Second additional cost of sales, % of revenue

Monthly change in cost of sales

Monthly change in that rate

Shipping cost per order

Acquisition costs

Acquisition cost, new customer

Acquisition cost, repeat order

Monthly change in acquisition costs

Monthly change in that rate

Growth and retention

New customers in the first month

Monthly growth in new customers

Monthly change in that growth rate

Conversion rate

Share of website sessions that order; used for the traffic you would need

Customers at the start

Churn per repeat cycle

Share of customers who don't order again in the next cycle

Repeat cycle, months

Months between repeat orders

Retention curve multiplier

Scales repeat orders after the first month for every cohort

Change cohort performance after this many customers

Cohort performance multiplier once past that

Revenue over 48 months

$485.8M

Operating income over 48 months

$262.1M

Orders over 48 months

2.6M

Lifetime value (LTV)

$58.50

Unit economics

Lifetime orders per new customer: 2
Average order valueSimple average of the monthly figures: $158.14
Gross margin per order: $118.61
Acquisition cost per order: $22.54
Contribution margin per order: $96.07

Totals

New customers over 48 months: 1,404,054
Repeat orders over 48 months: 1,159,273
Cost of sales over 48 months: $170,040,269
Marketing spend over 48 months: $53,714,349
Website sessions needed over 48 months: 128,166,333

By month

This runs the same math as the spreadsheet, checked against the workbook on every change. When you want the formulas, download the workbook with your inputs, or get the model with its docs and the Google Sheets version.