Forecast
The Forecast sheet is the core sheet for entering expenses, creating a hiring plan, reporting revenues and billings, fundraising, and all the root calculations. Here's an explainer on how it works.
The Forecast sheet is the core sheet for expenses, hiring plan, revenues, billings, fundraising, actuals, and root calculations.
Here's a rundown of the main sections.
Use of colors and formatting: Formatting
Timescale
The timescale section sets what each column means in the forecast period. Base timescale (monthly/quarterly/annual) and number of periods are set on Get Started. Periods can be reduced or extended.
- Date — varies with timescale and relative vs absolute setting
- Period in model — period number
- Date at end of period
- Fiscal Year — relative number or absolute date
- Timestep — period number - 1
- Month # in Fiscal Year — 1 through 12
- Quarter in Fiscal Year — 1 through 4
- Seasonality % — optional, used when a driver selects "use seasonality"
- Deferred revenues start month — optional start month for recognizing deferred revenues
- Actuals or Forecast? — automatically switches when actuals are entered
- Timescale Flag — flags periods less than the desired timescale on
Get Started - Event Flag — placeholder for a custom flag
- Custom Flag — placeholder for a custom flag
- Escalation Factor — placeholder for an escalation / deceleration / inflation factor
Seasonality and flags can be applied line-by-line on Forecast via checkbox or TRUE/FALSE, using the drivers columns. Flags are mostly for future features or custom additions like scenarios.
Forecasted Revenues, Expenses, & Cash Flows
This section forecasts operating metrics, revenues, and expenses. For each line, use the forecasting drivers or directly overwrite the formulas to input your own assumptions.
The default setup uses section breaks to separate revenues, expenses, fundraising, hiring plan, and operating metrics. This is personal preference — rows and sections can be inserted, deleted, or reordered freely. The model only cares about the category selected in column D.
Key columns:
- Detail (B) — labels for each line. Input in the primary section.
- Category (D) — dropdown that sets how the line is treated accounting-wise. Critical for driving the model.
- Segment (E) — defines segment for the optional Breakdown report. Ignore if not needed.
- Column H — non-input select for
sum,final,initial, oraveragereporting in column I. Useful for error-spotting without scrolling. - Columns K–S — Forecasting Drivers. Optional, recommended.
- Column T — per-row data flags for row-specific settings in
Detailed Calculations.
The primary input section — rows 22 through 98 in the default — can be any length. After it, the model reports three sections:
Forecast, by Category— sums primary inputs into reporting primitivesActuals, by Category— optional inputs for actual or historical financialsActuals + Forecast, by Category— combines actuals (where present) with forecast; drives Budget analysis; offers inputs to rename revenue, cost of sales, and SG&A categories
Most rows in Actuals + Forecast aren't inputs and shouldn't be edited. If you need to add or remove rows for operating metrics or accounting categories, insert or delete the same number of rows in the same relative position across all three sections, copy formulas over the new rows, then update Summary, Breakdown, and Budget if relevant.
Custom additions integrate here too. See Bring Your Own Model for the concept and How to add custom forecasts for the mechanics.
Detailed Calculations
Sets the default labels for Revenues, Cost of Goods Sold, and SG&A. Changing these is rare.
The Optional: Breakdown section sets segment labels. See Breakdown.
Burn
Calculates burn and runway:
- Net Burn — cash flow from operations + investing + debt repayments, excluding external cash flows. Edit if you use a different definition.
- Net Burn (net negative / positive) — separated for the key reports chart.
- Runway, using current month burn — takes cash at beginning of period / current month net burn. Reports "na" if cash flow positive; zero if cash is out.
- Runway, using next N months — projects forward to find when cash runs out, adjusting for changing revenue and cost assumptions. Caps at periods remaining in the model.
Revenue Recognition
Splits revenues between billings (cash in) and recognized revenue (GAAP-style), handling contract length and billing cycle differences. Creates deferred revenue on the balance sheet automatically. See Revenue Recognition.
Accounts Receivable
Models the gap between recognizing revenue and collecting cash. Uses days-sales-outstanding (DSO). See Accruals and Payables.
Depreciation
Straight-line depreciation on capital expenditures over a configurable useful life. See Depreciation.
Amortization
Straight-line amortization for intangibles over useful life. See Amortization.
Debt Repayment
Debt issuance, interest (accrued vs paid), principal schedules, and balance sheet carrying value. Multiple instruments supported. See Debt Repayment.
Corporate Income Taxes and VAT
Corporate income tax with configurable rates and cash-vs-accrual timing. VAT or sales tax on revenues and expenses for international models. See taxes and VAT.
Inventory
Inventory purchases, COGS, balance sheet inventory. Models purchasing cycles separately from sales cycles. See Inventory.
Revenue Units
Reports the build of revenue units (label set on Get Started), used for Key Reports. Optional. Prebuilt to sum revenue unit builds from Revenues. Edit if you use custom revenue streams.
MRR and ARR
Reports MRR (monthly recurring revenue) and ARR (MRR * 12) from Revenues, used for Key Reports and Key Metrics. You may need to edit if you add custom revenue streams or use a split recurring/non-recurring model.
MRR excludes one-time revenues, costs, discounts, chargebacks, or affiliate fees. Adjusted for contracts longer than a month.
- Beginning MRR
- Renewal MRR — from renewing customers this period
- New MRR — from customers signed this period
- Reactivation MRR — optional, not modeled by default
- Expansion MRR — when per-customer revenue increases
- Contraction MRR — when per-customer revenue decreases. Enter as negative (needed for charts).
- Churned MRR — lost from churn. Enter as negative.
- MRR — end of period
- Net Expansion MRR — excludes renewal, includes reactivation. See Why the Quick Ratio is a Crucial SaaS Metric
- Net New MRR — MRR churned / MRR at beginning
- Quick Ratio — optional. Same source as above
- Dollar Churn Rate — optional. Churned MRR / (Existing MRR + Renewal MRR)
Valuation
Enterprise and equity value via DCF and multiples. Outputs flow into the cap table. See Valuation.
Common Modifications
The sheet is open for editing. Common changes: adding or deleting rows in the primary input section, renaming revenue and expense categories, renaming Breakdown segments, writing custom formulas in the forecast columns (AB onwards).