Ecommerce Forecasting Tool
Financial model template for ecommerce businesses, using a cohort-based approach to model new and repeat customers and calculate revenues.
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$20 suggested, but "0" is ok. All donations appreciated.
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Highlights
The free Ecommerce Model is the simplest structure of the models for forecasting Ecommerce businesses. Creates a forecast of acquisitions, retentions, revenues, acquisition costs, cost of goods sold, CAC and LTV, and is easy to use for ecommerce or transaction-style businesses. I built this tool to help entrepreneurs understand the mechanics behind forecasting the growth and revenues of an ecommerce business, in a package that is easy to use, easy to edit, and easy to understand.
It intentionally simplifies the business down to key inputs, and by default does not include expenses and a calculation of net income.
Optional Historicals sheet allows you to drop in historical cohort retention data to automatically analyze past performance and use past retention to forecast future cohort performance.
For financial statements and full financial reporting, including full support for SaaS and subscription businesses, check out the Standard Financial Model.
What you'll do with it
Forecast an ecommerce or transaction-style business. Inputs for acquisitions, repeat behavior, prices, cost of goods sold, acquisition cost. Outputs revenues, retention curves, CAC, LTV, contribution per cohort.
Intentionally simple. No expenses, no income statement. Optional Historicals sheet, drop in historical cohort retention data to analyze past performance and project forward.
When to use this vs. the Standard Financial Model
This is a focused tool for forecasting ecommerce revenue mechanics. If you need full financial statements, expenses, inventory accounting, hiring plans, and cap table, use the Standard Financial Model, same ecommerce revenue logic plus everything else.
Edit with AI
Every cell open. Inputs in blue, formulas in black. Built to be edited.
- Context primer. Paste it into Claude or ChatGPT before you make a change.
- Prompt guide. Ready-made prompts for setup, cohort assumptions, and scenarios.
- Hemrock Skill. A drop-in Claude Agent Skill that loads this model's sheet map, prompts, and checks into any Claude Project. Free, with no connector to set up.
- MCP server. On ChatGPT, Cursor, or another tool? The MCP server feeds the same context to any AI that speaks MCP.
- Verify before you trust. The sanity-check prompts catch hallucinated numbers and wrong references.
Common questions
Why download this when AI can build me an ecommerce model?
AI will build a plausible-looking forecast fast, and a cohort retention curve is an easy place for it to be plausibly wrong. This gives it a structure where the cohort math already holds, so it customizes something proven instead of guessing the mechanics.
Is it too complex to use?
No, simple is the point of this one. It strips an ecommerce business down to the inputs that matter and skips expenses and income statements. If you need the full picture, the Standard Financial Model has the same revenue logic plus statements, costs, and hiring.
Excel or Google Sheets?
Both. All formulas open, no macros.
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$20 suggested, but "0" is ok. All donations appreciated.
Instant Access