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Inside the Venture Capital Model, Quarterly Forecast

Sheet-by-sheet reference: every input, formula, and output. Use this to scan the model before purchase, or as a cell-level reference when editing with AI.

15 sheets7 sections

How to read this

Cells are referenced by R<row>/<column><row> notation. R9/E9 means column E, row 9. R38–R45 is a block of inputs spanning those rows. Multi-column ranges like D39–J39 mean the same row across several columns. Types: INPUT = user-edited, FORMULA = calculated, DROPDOWN = select from list.

Venture Capital Model, Quarterly Forecast Sheet Map

Sheets (15)

README, License, Get Started, Get Started 2, Forecast 2, Get Started 3, Forecast 3, Scenarios, Key Reports, Forecast, Management Company, Resources, Model Comparison, Glossary, Changelog

Structure

Three scenarios (base + 2 alternates), each with their own Get Started + Forecast pair. The base scenario uses "Get Started" + "Forecast"; scenarios 2 and 3 use "Get Started 2"/"Forecast 2" and "Get Started 3"/"Forecast 3". The Scenarios sheet compares all three side-by-side.

Get Started: Core Inputs

Capital and Fund Assumptions (R5–R18)

All time periods are in quarters, not years.

Row Label Type Default
R9/E9 Total Committed Capital (Fund Size) INPUT ($) $25M
R10/E10 GP Commit, as % of committed capital INPUT (%) 2%
R11/E11 Organizational Expenses (one-time) INPUT ($) $100k
R12/E12 Operational Expenses (annual) INPUT ($) $75k
R13/E13 Management Fees, per year, as % of committed capital INPUT (%) 2%
R14/E14 Carry INPUT (%) 20%
R15/E15 Active Investment time period (quarters) INPUT (#) 16
R16/E16 Fund Duration / Management Fees time period (quarters) INPUT (#) 40
R17/E17 Fund Operations time period (quarters) INPUT (#) 40
R18/E18 Fund Duration Extension Period (quarters) INPUT (#) 0

Recycling (R21–R29)

Row Label Type Default
R25/E25 Target recycling %, and max achievable INPUT (%) 0%
R26/E26 Based on (committed capital / management fees) DROPDOWN committed capital
R27/E27 From exits N quarters or less post-investment INPUT (#) 24
R28/E28 Up to (invested capital / proceeds) per investment exited DROPDOWN invested capital
R29/E29 Able to invest in (new investments / follow-on) DROPDOWN new investments

Investment Strategy and Expectations (R32–R93)

The quarterly model uses an Exit Outcome structure (Fail / Low / Medium / High), not a multi-stage graduation chain like the flagship.

Investment Performance and Capital Allocation (R37–R45)

Columns are the four exit outcomes. Each row is one metric across all four columns.

Row Label Type
R38 % of Investments per Exit Outcome INPUT (%)
R39 # of Companies that achieve each Exit Outcome FORMULA
R40 Index of average investment per overall average INPUT (%)
R41 Adjustment to % of Investments → % of Invested Capital FORMULA
R42 % of Invested Capital per Exit Outcome FORMULA
R43–R45 % of Initial / First Follow / Second Follow capital per outcome FORMULA

Initial Investment (R47–R50)

Row Label Type Default
R48 Average Initial Investment INPUT ($) $500k
R49 Postmoney Valuation INPUT ($) $5M
R50 Ownership %, at initial investment FORMULA 10%

First Follow-on Round (R52–R60)

Row Label Type Default
R53 % of Initial Investments to Participate in Pro-rata INPUT (%) 0%
R54 Follow-on Investment Amount INPUT ($) $400k
R55 Time from Initial → Follow-on (quarters) INPUT (#) 0
R56 Postmoney Valuation INPUT ($) $20M
R57 Dilution from Round (all investors) INPUT (%) 20%
R58 Dilution from New Option Pool INPUT (%) 10%
R59 Ownership % per company followed on, post follow-on FORMULA 9%
R60 Ownership % per average initial investment, post follow-on FORMULA 7%

Second Follow-on Round (R62–R70)

Mirror of First Follow-on rows above, with defaults: $1.08M check, $60M postmoney, 20% dilution, 10% option pool.

Additional Follow-ons (R72–R73)

Row Label Type Default
R73 Additional Dilution from Second Follow-on to Exit INPUT (%) 0%

Exit (R75–R93)

Row Label Type
R76 Average Exit Value INPUT/FORMULA
R77 Average Hold Period (quarters) INPUT (#)
R78 Average Investment per Company FORMULA
R79 Ownership % at Exit FORMULA
R80 Average Proceeds per Company FORMULA
R81–R88 Total Initial / First Follow / Second Follow / Total Follow capital per outcome FORMULA
R89–R90 Total Invested Capital ($ and %) FORMULA
R91–R92 Total Proceeds ($ and %) FORMULA
R93 Gross Exit Multiple per Exit Outcome FORMULA

Portfolio Construction (R96–R102)

Row Label Type Default
R100/E100–F100 % Allocation of Invested Capital (New / Follow) INPUT (%) 100% / 0%
R101/E101–F101 Average Check Size INPUT ($) $500k
R102/E102–F102 # of Checks FORMULA calculated

Return Assumptions (R105–R112)

Four exit outcomes, by % of investments per outcome.

Row Label Default
R109 Fail 60%
R110 Low 20%
R111 Medium 10%
R112 High 10%

Fund Performance (R115–R131): all FORMULA

Headline metrics that summarize the model output.

Row Metric
R118 Called Capital (Paid-in Capital)
R119 Management Fees and Fund Expenses
R120 Budgeted Invested Capital
R121 Recycled Capital
R122 Invested Capital
R123 Proceeds
R124 Carried Interest
R125 Distributions
R127 Gross Multiple
R128 Net Multiple
R129 Gross IRR
R130 Net IRR
R131 Max Exposure, as % of Committed Capital

Forecast: Quarterly Cash Flows

Where the Get Started assumptions become a quarter-by-quarter cash flow across the life of the fund. Same engine as the flagship Venture Capital Model. Almost everything flows automatically; a few cells on this sheet are editable.

Layout. Column B is the line label, column C holds notes and a few optional overrides, column D is the aggregation method (sum / final / initial / max), column E is the all-period total, and the quarters run left to right across columns G onward, one column per quarter.

Triggers (R7-R11)

On/off flags per quarter, derived from the Get Started time periods, that switch fund activities on and off as the fund ages: new investment period (R8), management fees period (R9), fund operations period (R10), proceeds recycling period (R11). Normally left alone.

Inputs (R13-R21)

The editable assumptions that live on the Forecast itself: Management Fees basis (R14, charge on committed or called capital), the three GP-commit treatment toggles (excluded from LP capital R16, excluded from management fees R17, covered via cashless contributions R18), Committed Capital % called per year (R19), and optional manual overrides for the Called Capital and Invested Capital pacing (R20-R21).

Capital roll-forward (R23-R29)

The quarterly cash bridge: capital beginning of period (R23), plus called capital (R24), plus proceeds (R25), less distributions and carried interest (R26), less fees (R27), less investments (R28), equals capital end of period (R29).

Detailed cash flows (R31-R60)

Each is a quarterly series:

Rows Lines
R31-R32 Committed Capital, Called Capital
R33 Manual Investments (type a check into a specific quarter to override the paced schedule)
R34-R37 New Investments, Prorata Opportunities, Reserves for Follow-on, Follow-on Investments
R38-R39 Total Investments by cohort, Total Investments
R40-R42 Organizational Expenses, Operational Expenses, Management Fees
R43-R44 Recycled Capital, Proceeds
R45-R47 Preferred Return, GP Catchup, Carried Interest (the waterfall, quarter by quarter)
R48 Distributions
R49-R54 Writeoffs, Invested Capital Exited, Change in Invested Capital, Change in Unrealized Gain (Loss), Change in Residual Value, Change in Undrawn Capital Commitments
R55-R59 The LP and GP splits: Committed and Called Capital from LPs, change in invested capital from LPs, Distributions to LPs, Distributions to GPs
R60 New Investments (number of companies)

Cumulative versions (R61-R90)

Each flow above repeated as a running cumulative total, so you can read the fund's position at any point rather than just the activity in one quarter.

Multiples and exposure (R92-R96)

PIC (R92), RVPI (R93), DVPI (R94), TVPI (R95), and Exposure as a percent of total committed capital (R96).

Performance (R98-R106)

Realized-only return lines: Net (Investments) Proceeds and cumulative (R98-R99), Gross Multiple and Gross IRR (R100-R101), Net (Called Capital) Distributions and cumulative (R102-R103), Net Multiple and Net IRR (R104-R105), and Interim Net IRR including unrealized value (R106).

IRR build grid (R107 onward)

One row per quarter, each building the dated cash-flow vector that feeds the IRR formulas. This produces the J-curve.

Scenarios: side-by-side comparison and sensitivity

The model carries three full scenarios. The base case is the main Get Started and Forecast pair. Scenarios 2 and 3 have their own complete pairs ("Get Started 2" with "Forecast 2", "Get Started 3" with "Forecast 3"). The Scenarios sheet is the dashboard and the place you drive the two alternates from.

What the Scenarios sheet shows (B2:N32)

Three columns: Conservative Case (Scenario 2), Base Case (Scenario 1), High Case (Scenario 3).

Rows Content
R23-R26 Gross Multiple, Net Multiple, Gross IRR, Net IRR for each scenario, pulled from each scenario's Get Started (E127-E130)
R28 % Change in # of High Exits (default -50% conservative, +100% high)
R29 % Change in Valuations of High Exits (default -25% conservative, +25% high)
R31-R32 Notes on what each sensitivity input changes

How the alternates are driven

Get Started 2 and Get Started 3 reference the base Get Started for most assumptions, then apply the two sensitivity inputs from the Scenarios sheet to perturb the count and valuation of high exits. Tune two numbers per alternate and the rest follows the base, or overwrite any cell directly on a scenario's Get Started sheet to make it fully independent (different fund size, strategy, or return outcomes).

Key Reports

Pre-built summary views and charts pulling from the base scenario.

Management Company

A separate entity model, distinct from the fund:

  • Revenues (R7-R10): Management Fees, plus a spare line, totaled
  • Expenses (R12-R27): Salary, Contractors, Travel, Marketing, Software, Annual LLC filings, Insurance, several Taxes lines, and spare rows, totaled
  • Management Company Cash (R29-R34): cash beginning of period, revenues, expenses, external funding placeholder, cash end of period
  • GP Carried Interest Entity (R36-R38): Carried Interest and its disbursements (assumed immediate)

Key differences from the flagship Venture Capital Model

  • Exit Outcome structure (Fail/Low/Medium/High) rather than the flagship's multi-stage graduation chain (Seed → Series A → … → Series F+)
  • Up to two follow-on rounds modeled explicitly (First Follow + Second Follow), with everything beyond folded into "Additional Dilution"
  • 3 full scenario copies (Get Started 2/3 + Forecast 2/3), independent assumptions
  • No Statements sheet: the flagship has full fund-level Statement of Operations / Balance Sheet / Cash Flows; the quarterly does not
  • Time periods in quarters throughout (Active Investment, Fund Duration, Operations, Extension)