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Venture Capital Model, Quarterly Forecast

Simplified quarterly fund model with three scenarios. Power-law return tiers instead of multi-stage graduation. Use it when you want pacing and a J-curve without the full Strategy section.

The Venture Capital Model, Quarterly Forecast is the middle model between the aggregate Fund Economics Tool and the flagship Venture Capital Model.

You get quarterly cash flows, three scenarios, and a Management Company sheet. The return engine is power-law tiers, not multi-stage graduation.

When to use which

There are three models to pick from. The Fund Economics Tool is aggregate sizing, no time-series, fastest to modify. The Quarterly Forecast (this model) adds quarterly cash flows, a J-curve, three scenarios, and a Management Company sheet, with power-law returns. The full Venture Capital Model adds multi-stage graduation tracking, fund statements, European-waterfall carry with preferred return and catchup, and recycling with configurable limits.

If your LP deck needs a J-curve chart and a quarterly call schedule but not a full graduation model, this is the one.

Sheets

15 total: README, License, Get Started, Get Started 2, Forecast 2, Get Started 3, Forecast 3, Scenarios, Key Reports, Forecast, Management Company, Resources, Model Comparison, Glossary, Changelog.

Base scenario is Get Started + Forecast. Alternates are Get Started 2 + Forecast 2 and Get Started 3 + Forecast 3. Each pair is independent.

Get Started

Capital and Fund Assumptions (R5-R19)

Column D holds every primary input. D9 and D10 are Total Committed Capital ($25M) and GP Commit % (2%). D11 and D12 are Organizational Expenses ($150k one-time) and Operational Expenses ($100k/year). D13 and D14 are Management Fees % per year (2%) and Recycled Capital % (10%); see recycling. D15 is Carry % (20%). D16 through D19 are period inputs in years: new investment (4), mgmt fees (10), fund ops (10), and extension (0).

Note the units: this model takes years; the flagship VC Model takes quarters.

Portfolio Construction (R22-R28)

D26/E26 split allocation between new and follow-on. D27/E27 average check size per bucket ($750k / $0 default). R28 is # of checks (formula). See portfolio construction.

Return Assumptions (R31-R39)

Power-law tiers, not a single average multiple. Each row has % of capital, avg gross multiple, and holding period: R35 writeoffs, R36 small, R37 medium, R38 large. The shipped values are illustrative examples, not market norms. Edit them to your thesis before trusting outputs.

Fund Performance (R41-R60)

All formula. Total / LP / GP splits for Called Capital, Expenses, Fees, Recycling, Invested Capital, Proceeds, Carry, Distributions, Gross/Net Multiple, Gross/Net IRR, PIC, DPI, RVPI. See VC performance metrics and fund waterfall.

Forecast: quarterly cash flows

Each column is a quarter over fund life (40+ quarters). Rows (all formula, pulled from Get Started): capital calls, management fees, fund expenses, investments paced across the investment period, exits paced by holding period, distributions, NAV, and cumulative PIC / DPI / RVPI / TVPI / IRR. That last block is the J-curve. Don't edit. Change Get Started and watch it recalc.

Management Company

Separate P&L for the GP entity: fee revenue, operating expenses, GP commit obligations, carry income. See management company.

Scenarios: how to run one

Three scenarios, each with its own Get Started + Forecast pair.

  1. Open Get Started 2 (or Get Started 3).
  2. Change whatever you want: fund size, check size, return tiers, holding periods.
  3. Forecast 2 updates automatically.
  4. The Scenarios sheet compares all three. Sensitivity inputs on that sheet drive the alternates.

Keep the base case clean. Use scenarios for a conservative / high split, or strategy-A vs strategy-B.

Edit with AI

Open the workbook with Claude for Excel, or connect the Hemrock MCP server at mcp.hemrock.com for primers, task prompts, and sanity checks. Start from the venture_fund primer in the prompt guide; the same primer covers both VC models.

Common moves: add a fifth return tier for unicorns, change check size over fund life, shift the investment period from 4 to 3 years, flip recycling from 10% to 20%.

Change inputs on Get Started. Don't hand-edit Forecast or the fund performance rows, they're formula-driven. If a scenario doesn't match your thesis, edit that scenario's Get Started, not the output.